In their newly released book A Sixth of Humanity, Arvind Subramanian and Devesh Kapur point to a striking fact. Starting in 1980, Tamil Nadu grew as fast as China. It sustained that pace for nearly four decades. And it did so without the early agricultural surge that drove growth in many northwestern states. Tamil Nadu built its rise on manufacturing automobiles, engineering goods, textiles, leather. Export-linked industries built on formal firms and a steady integration with global markets. For years, that model delivered.
But this dynamism did not last uninterrupted. Between 1991 and 2011, Tamil Nadu was the fourth fastest-growing major state in India. In the decade that followed, from 2012 to 2020, it slipped to eighth place. The state did not fall into stagnation, but it lost momentum relative to its competitors. It struggled to attract fresh investment in manufacturing, despite its deep industrial base, strong human capital and established infrastructure.
Several forces contributed to this slowdown. Labour costs rose faster than productivity. Urbanisation lost steam. States such as Karnataka, Telangana and Gujarat competed harder for global capital. Tamil Nadu still had strengths, but it was not converting them into new opportunities as effectively as before.
But covid had come as a blessing. Post covid, based on available data, Tamil Nadu has again become one of the faster-growing major states. The recovery is broad. It is being driven by investment rather than by short-term stimulus. And, it is taking place during a global reordering of supply chains.
Seizing the China+1 Moment: Tamil Nadu has been one of the major states to capitalise the China+1 moment. Between 2021 and 2023, the state secured manufacturing investment commitments exceeding two lakh crores rupees from more than 200 companies, promising over 3.5 lakh jobs. The investments span both labour-intensive sectors such as footwear, textiles and furniture, and capital-intensive industries like electronics, automobiles and electric vehicles. Global firms, including Cisco, Samsung, Hyundai Motor Company, Renault–Nissan Alliance and Ola Electric, are expanding their footprint in the state.
The most visible example is the expansion of the iPhone supply chain led by Apple through partners such as Foxconn and Tata Group.
Another notable signal is the decision of Ford Motor Company to resume manufacturing in Tamil Nadu after exiting in 2021, reflecting renewed confidence in the state’s industrial base and administrative capacity. How did this momentum return? Writing in the Financial Times, economist Arvind Subramanian argues that Tamil Nadu has cultivated a reputation as a relatively easy place to do business. The state combines a large pool of engineering graduates, established automotive clusters and competitive incentives with something harder to replicate: policy stability and political consensus.
When Ford chose to shut its plant that year, the state helped manage labour and land issues smoothly. That experience convinced Ford that risks were lower in Tamil Nadu. When it decided to make a new investment in India, it chose the state again. The lesson was clear: when exits are predictable and fair, firms feel more confident about entering.
New Trade Openings: The timing of this administrative strengthening is significant. India has just concluded what officials call the “mother of all deals”, a free trade agreement with the European Union, following similar pacts with the UK, New Zealand and Oman. Tamil Nadu, with its export-oriented manufacturing base in footwear, apparel, leather goods and light engineering, stands to gain from improved access to high-income markets as global supply chains diversify. Yet risks remain. The USA, India’s largest export destination, has introduced new trade uncertainties through tariffs and legal disputes. While states cannot shape global demand, they can reduce domestic cost disadvantages. When external conditions tighten, competitiveness at home becomes critical.
The Fiscal Strain: This brings the focus to Tamil Nadu’s fiscal situation. The investment rebound is occurring alongside a deterioration in the state’s public finances. The 16th Finance Commission (FC) raises several concerns. It notes weak GST buoyancy in Tamil Nadu and expects a revenue shortfall of about Rs 20,000 crores in 2024-25. Debt has risen sharply over the past decade. Tamil Nadu’s debt-to-GSDP ratio has increased from 17.4 per cent in 2011–12 to 31.5 per cent in 2024-25, far above the 25 per cent ceiling set under the state’s Fiscal Responsibility Act. Interest payments take up around one-fifth of revenue receipts. This leaves limited fiscal room for critical public investment. Logistics, urban services, ports, education and skilling all need steady funding to support a manufacturing-led economy.
The Power Problem: The power sector remains the single largest contributor to Tamil Nadu’s fiscal strain. The 16th Finance Commission notes that accumulated losses of the state’s DISCOMs exceed 6 per cent of GSDP (highest in India) making them the biggest fiscal risk. Much of this stems from operational inefficiencies and a tariff structure built on extensive cross-subsidisation. Tamil Nadu’s average cost of supply is roughly Rs 3 per unit higher than in better-managed states, while industrial and commercial users pay well above cost to subsidise other categories. This matters because emerging sectors such as textiles, electronics, EV manufacturing and data centres are energy-intensive and sensitive to both price and carbon footprint. Reform is essential. Better targeted subsidies, tariffs closer to cost, and stronger governance in TANGEDCO is essential to sustain industrial growth.
What Comes Next
Tamil Nadu’s recent growth confirms the strength of its industrial ecosystem, and new trade agreements could amplify this momentum. The past decade offered a lesson. When the alignment between policy, institutions, and industry weakens, growth slows down. The recent rebound shows that this can be restored. The durability of Tamil Nadu’s revival will not be determined by the scale of investment announcements alone. Whether it lasts will depend on the fiscal and power-sector constraints being addressed. – (Reproduced from The Industrial Economist).