The El Nino global weather phenomenon this year has been one of the most severe ones in recent times and has had a great impact nationally, with the country’s primary rainfall season, the Southwest monsoon being erratic and largely below-normal till date. This has in-turn had a cascading effect leading to several attendant issues, including a direct impact on the agricultural season (raising concerns of food inflation risk), unseasonal soaring temperatures, increased power consumption etc. For Tamil Nadu, the biggest impact has been the delay in the opening of the Mettur dam thanks to the inadequate storage levels in the catchment areas of the dams in the neighbouring state of Karnataka. With global weather models and agencies expecting the El Nino phenomenon to turn into a Super El-Nino (where sea-surface temperatures rise by more than 2 degree Celsius) soon, it is time to take stock of our state’s preparedness.
Tamil Nadu has been a pioneer in climate change mitigation and adaptation, with initiatives such as the Tamil Nadu Green Climate Company, a nodal agency to lead and coordinate the state’s climate action and sustainability strategies, the recognition of heat waves as a state-level disaster, the establishment of the first State-owned Green Climate Fund with a corpus of Rs 1000 crore etc. Following on from this commendable track record, it has recognized the threat of Super El-Nino and is putting in place measures to tackle its effects. While presenting the Agricultural Budget last week, the government has announced the implementation of the District Agricultural Contingency Plan setup by the Tamil Nadu Agricultural University in 12 districts such as Namakkal, Vellore, Dharmapuri, Perambalur, etc that are expected to be impacted the most according to an assessment by the Government of India.
The constitution by the government of an expert advisory committee comprising members drawn from diverse fields to advise the Tamil Nadu Disaster Risk Reduction Agency (TNDRAA) is yet another step in this direction. Chaired by the Additional Chief Secretary and Commissioner for Revenue Administration, it comprises members drawn from institutions such as Anna University (Centre for Climate Change and Disaster Management) and IIT Madras, besides climate-centric research institutes such as the World Resources Institute, India. Pradeep John, popularly known as the Tamil Nadu Weatherman too is part of the committee, whose tenure runs for two years, 2026-27 and 2027-28. Amongst its key reference terms is a continuous assessment of drought and rainfall conditions and offer solutions to ensure adequate preparedness.
At this juncture, it is also worthwhile to remember that we are hardly a couple of months away from the onset of the Northeast Monsoon, whose performance has a direct bearing on the water prospects of North Coastal Tamil Nadu, particularly the region colloquially referred to as KTCC (Kanchipuram, Tiruvallur, Chennai and Chengalpet) districts. The Super El Nino phenomenon is also associated with higher risk of uneven rainfall distribution. Experts have warned that this erratic pattern is likely to continue this El Nino year as well. It is also worth recollecting that two prominent flooding episodes in recent memory, that of 2015 and 2023 were both triggered during El Nino years, with man-made factors playing a part in the substantial damages that followed and any possibility of a repeat (though ultimately how things pan out will depend on multiple monsoon drivers other than El Nino as well) could already be a cause of worry for Chennai. But that is for another day.
In short, this Super El Nino year may well be the first stern test for the newly elected government and its ministers, many of whom lack major political experience. Given that climate change is increasingly influencing policy changes, governance, economic prospects worldwide, how well the current situation is handled at the ground level may well be a defining point in their political careers.